Kyiv says it hit six Su-34M bombers near Voronezh - satellite images suggest at least four were destroyed

On the night of 15 October, the Ukrainian navy carried out a missile strike on the Russian military airfield at Borisoglebsk, in the Voronezh region. According to its statement, six Russian Su-34M bombers were hit.

The irony lies in the weapon. The strike was carried out with the Neptune missile system, developed in Ukraine for coastal defence - a system designed to defend a coastline, not to hit airfields deep inside another country. Besides the aircraft, according to Ukrainian claims, technical equipment used to support air operations was also damaged. Secondary explosions were observed after the strike, and a fire broke out at the airfield. The Ukrainian military says the damage is still being assessed.

The target wasn't chosen by chance. The Su-34M is an upgraded version of Russia's Su-34 strike bomber, capable of carrying guided and unguided aerial bombs as well as several types of missiles. Russian forces regularly use these aircraft for guided-bomb attacks on Ukrainian military positions and on towns near the front line. Russia's Defence Ministry, for its part, regularly announces Su-34 strikes with FAB-500 and FAB-1500 bombs.

That's why the Ukrainian navy believes that damaging six such aircraft could significantly reduce the operational capability of Russia's tactical aviation and limit the intensity of air operations on some sections of the front.

Enter the satellite. New satellite images of the airfield have been assessed by open-source analysts - and they write that at least four Su-34 bombers were most likely destroyed. Not six, but at least four. Claims about the number of aircraft hit and the extent of the damage currently rest on the Ukrainian navy's statement, and independent confirmation isn't available.

This is no small footnote. In war every side counts for its own audience, and the number in the press release is rarely the one that ends up in the history books. The Balkans knows well how quickly "destroyed equipment" multiplies in statements and melts away on the ground. Who counts more accurately - the press office or the satellite?

Even with the more modest number, the strike hurts Moscow: every destroyed Su-34 is one bomber fewer over the front. And the fact that a Ukrainian coastal missile can reach an airfield near Voronezh says more about where the war's front line lies today than any map.