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The US military has drawn up new plans for strikes on Iran that include the possible use of the so-called "mother of all bombs" - against Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear facilities. That would be the option if President Donald Trump orders a resumption of combat operations, CNN reported, citing several US officials.
The weapon in question is the GBU-43/B, the largest non-nuclear bomb in the American arsenal. Using it in the conflict with Iran would be a significant escalation, CNN says. The bomb is GPS-guided and can destroy an area the size of nine city blocks.
The biggest bomb, but maybe not deep enough
This is where Washington's problem starts. According to several sources familiar with internal military discussions, there are doubts about how effective this bomb would actually be in achieving Trump's strategic goals or changing the balance of power in the war. The sources say it most likely can't penetrate deep enough below the surface to destroy nuclear facilities believed to be protected by layers of granite.
In other words, America's biggest hammer may not reach what scares Washington most. One unnamed US official explained that in planning, the military prepares a whole range of options for decision-makers, from the toughest to the milder ones. Targets that require a heavier blow, including those deep underground, require bigger bombs - and the GBU-43/B is the biggest of them.
Strike, declare victory, pull out
According to one source, Trump has ordered the military to prepare additional plans for strikes on Iranian targets covering "a significant part of the energy infrastructure". The plans stated that the attack would take place before US forces withdraw from Central Command's (CENTCOM) area of responsibility. That suggests a scenario in which the administration carries out further strikes, declares victory and quickly pulls out all its forces.
The timetable is even clearer. Trump has said the US won't attack Iran before the 3 November midterms, and according to the Wall Street Journal, he rejected an Iranian proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and privately told aides he expects the bombing to resume after the elections. A war on a schedule tailored to the electoral calendar - that's a scene the Balkans knows better than it would like.
While Washington plans, Moscow delivers
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported, citing Western officials, that Russia has begun delivering large quantities of missiles to Iran. Despite eight months of American and Israeli strikes, Tehran has kept its capacity to produce ballistic missiles and drones, and has used the ceasefire to replenish its arsenal.
If both reports are true, the picture is simple: one side is restocking its arsenal, while the other is looking for a bomb that may not reach its target. So who is actually buying time - Washington or Tehran?
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