While Brussels writes the dates for a complete disconnection from Russian gas, the August figures say something else. In the first twelve days of the month Europe cut its purchases of liquefied natural gas on the world market to the lowest level in the last two years - and at the same time deliveries from Russia via the European branch of the TurkStream pipeline reached their highest level since March this year.

The two flows are moving in opposite directions

Deliveries of liquefied natural gas through the EU gas transport system from 1 to 12 August amounted to 3.2 billion cubic metres - 3.7 percent less month on month and 12.6 percent less year on year, according to data from the European association of gas infrastructure operators. Volumes have fallen that low only once before, in August 2024.

In the same period, deliveries of Russian natural gas through the Strandzha 2 - Malkoclar entry point on the Bulgarian-Turkish border rose by seven percent month on month and five percent year on year, to 609.2 million cubic metres. So Europe is not consuming less gas - Europe is taking it from a different entrance.

The dates everybody knows

On 26 January the EU Council approved a complete ban on deliveries of Russian liquefied natural gas into the EU from 1 January 2027, and on pipeline gas from 30 September 2027. Short-term pipeline gas contracts must end by 17 June 2026. The paper is clear, the signatures are in place, the deadlines published.

And that is exactly why these numbers are worth something. Eight months before the first of those deadlines, consumption is moving toward the route that is supposed to close, not away from it. That is not a coincidence in one statistic - it is a decision by someone looking at a price, not a calendar.

Why this is a Balkan story

That entry point is not far away. Strandzha 2 - Malkoclar is on the Bulgarian-Turkish border, and the branch continuing from there runs through the Balkans. The region does not decide on sanctions, but it has the pipe running through it - which means every shift in the flow passes through here.

The question Brussels does not want to formulate out loud for now is simple: what changes when the date arrives, if right up to the last month the volume is rising instead of falling? A ban getting closer while the flow increases usually does not mean preparation - it means postponement.