The eurozone's private sector hit a nine-month high in August. The composite purchasing managers' index rose to 52.1 from 52 in July, moving further away from the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction.

The main driver is industry. Manufacturing PMI jumped from 51.9 to 52.8 - the highest level in more than four years. The industrial output index reached 53.4, the fastest pace in four and a half years. Services held steady growth at 51.7, the same as in July.

Germany is waking up, France is not

The recovery is uneven, and that is more interesting than the average. In Germany, manufacturing recorded its fastest growth since January 2022. In France, by contrast, business activity kept declining. The rest of the eurozone posted its strongest growth since April 2022.

So the eurozone is growing, but not growing in the same place. The two largest economies are heading in opposite directions.

What is actually driving the growth

Economists point to three factors: increased demand for artificial intelligence technologies, higher investment in equipment because of rising defence spending in Germany, and precautionary stockpiling due to supply chain disruptions in the Middle East.

The second and third are worth dwelling on. German industry is partly being pulled by defence spending - which means part of Europe's industrial growth is a function of a war situation, not consumer demand. And precautionary stockpiling is what companies do when they expect disruptions. Today it counts as an order, tomorrow as inventory that does not get replenished.

Exports recorded their first growth in four and a half years, and pressure on input costs eased further. Services price growth fell to its lowest level since the start of the year.

Why this is read from here too

Germany is the largest trading partner for much of the region, and Macedonian manufacturing works within chains that lead exactly there. When German factories accelerate after three years of stagnation, that is a figure worth following closely - not because anything changes here immediately, but because orders travel down the chain with a lag.

Whether this is a genuine turnaround or a short burst fed by defence budgets and stockpiling will be shown by the autumn numbers, not by an August index.