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Both Sides Are Right About the Public Debt, and That Is Exactly the Problem: 350 Million That Is Not in One Place

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Both Sides Are Right About the Public Debt, and That Is Exactly the Problem: 350 Million That Is Not in One Place

The government and the opposition are arguing about the public debt. That in itself is not news. What is news is that the two sides use different calculations for the same thing, and both are formally correct.

At the core of the dispute is the debt of the Public Enterprise for State Roads - 350 million euros in new borrowing. SDSM claims it is not included in the official figures and that the public is getting an incomplete picture. The government says that under the Public Debt Act it does not belong there.

Who is right

Technically - both. Finance minister Gordana Dimitrieska-Kočoska explained that the debt of public enterprises is covered in the Public Debt Management Strategy and the Fiscal Strategy, but is not part of central government debt, so it does not appear in the Budget the way direct state obligations do.

Prime minister Hristijan Mickoski explained the same thing further: the enterprise's loans are framework loans, the funds are drawn down gradually, depending on how work proceeds on the ground and when the invoices arrive.

All of that is true. And none of it answers the question the citizen is actually asking: who repays those 350 million in the end?

If the enterprise cannot repay from its own revenue, the budget repays it - meaning the taxpayer. Then the classification is an accounting category and the obligation is the same. The distinction between "central government" and "public enterprise" matters for statistics and international reporting. For the person paying, the address is identical.

The contested figures

SDSM claims that with these obligations included, public debt could exceed 11 billion euros. Party leader Venko Filipče warned that the government is preparing new borrowing of 1.3 billion euros, not foreseen in the budget revision, and that the debt is heading towards almost 12 billion euros, or around 65 percent of GDP.

Mickoski rejected the accusations of hiding those 1.3 billion - according to him this is preparation for future obligations, including repayment of debts created in previous years. Specifically, a eurobond taken out during the coronavirus crisis.

This is the part nobody disputes

The finance ministry confirmed that in 2027 the state must repay nearly 1.5 billion euros on securities and loans. Added to that are treasury bills with maturities of up to 12 months, worth around 1.1 billion euros, which also fall due in 2027. Plus the planned budget deficit of 3.5 percent.

So next year is difficult, no matter who is doing the counting. And the solution being prepared is new borrowing on the international market.

Growth as the answer

The government offers economic indicators as its counter-argument: GDP grew 4.3 percent in the second quarter, against 3.1 percent in the first. Investment in the second quarter grew 16.5 percent.

Those are good numbers and should not be dismissed. But GDP growth and the pace of borrowing are two separate indicators - one does not cancel the other. A country can grow and borrow faster than it grows at the same time.

The opposition warns that the new borrowing by year's end will carry a high interest rate. That is still a claim, not a figure - the rate will be known when the bond goes to market.

And that will be the best moment for a check. Not by who calculates the total which way, but by the percentage at which the world lends us money. The market does not read party press releases.