European agriculture is paying the bill for one extreme summer, and that bill is already being written into prices. Olive oil, which was among the most expensive basic products on the shelf even before this, is set to get more expensive again.

The cause is a combination that repeats itself more often every summer: extreme heat, prolonged drought and wildfires across the Mediterranean olive-growing regions - Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal.

The numbers the EU published

The European Union has cut its harvest forecasts: sunflower by 7 percent, grain maize by 6 percent, potatoes and soy by 3 percent each. The Spanish agriculture ministry expects the grain harvest to fall from 24 million tonnes to just over 18.5 million for the 2026/27 season - and that projection was made before the latest fires took their toll.

The French vegetable growers' association reported losses of thousands of tonnes, worth tens of millions of euros. Lettuce, carrots, leeks and onions are hit hardest, and for some crops production is expected to halve for lack of rain.

The wine regions are faring no better. Champagne, Bordeaux and Burgundy are announcing a reduced harvest and unusually early picking, with Champagne expecting a yield around 10 percent below last year.

Five and a half million tonnes vanishing from one market

When Spain loses more than five and a half million tonnes of grain in a single season, it does not stay a Spanish problem. That is a quantity missing from the European market the Balkans also buy from, and a shortfall is paid for at the end of the chain.

This is not abstract climate statistics. It is a direct line between what burned in the Mediterranean in July and what will be printed on the label in September.

Experts warn that unless weather conditions change soon, autumn will bring a new wave of price rises in olive oil, vegetables, grain and wine. In Britain, extra virgin olive oil is already selling for over seven pounds a litre, and recent months show another move upward.

Every summer like this one is paid for twice - once while it burns, and again at the checkout.