Winter 2026/2027 According to the Models: Less Snow for the Balkans, but El Niño and the Polar Vortex Could Rewrite the Script

The latest October runs from six seasonal models suggest the coming winter could bring below-average snow across almost all of western, central and southern Europe. The biggest deficits are expected along Scandinavia's west coast, in the north of the United Kingdom and in the western Balkans. Above-average snow is forecast only in the far northeast of the continent and in small parts of the northern mountain regions.

The October picture is worse than September's. A comparison of the ECMWF and British UKMO models shows that all seven main European regions now carry a below-average signal for total snowfall, and the biggest deterioration from the previous month is precisely in the group covering southern Europe and the Balkans.

The models also say when. December looks like a slow start to the season, and the strongest snow signal shifts towards the second half of winter. February stands out in parts of eastern and central Europe, while in March the more favourable signal moves even further north. For western, central and southern Europe there is, for now, no month with widespread above-average snow.

El Niño doesn't write the winter on its own

Much of the signal is linked to the strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific. According to NOAA's US Climate Prediction Center, the phenomenon keeps strengthening, and a strong to very strong event is likely through January - March 2027. Its effect on Europe, however, isn't direct: the North Atlantic, the jet stream, Mediterranean cyclones and the polar vortex are all in play.

The polar vortex is the wild card. If it gets disrupted later in the winter, Arctic air drops more easily towards the mid-latitudes and brings cold spells that a seasonal average can't show in advance. Science has no clear-cut answer here: winter 2006/2007 was also under El Niño's influence, and it was unusually warm.

Meteorologist Slavcho Poposki, who says the official seasonal analysis for Macedonia will come in December, notes that the analyses are contradictory for now. In his view, El Niño is not very intense and doesn't have a big impact in Macedonia, and the coming winter, though milder, doesn't mean there won't be spells of very cold to extremely cold weather and heavy snow, especially when cold air reaches the Mediterranean and forms snow cyclones.

Translation for Mavrovo, for the winter road crews and for anyone already ordering firewood: a seasonal map can't tell you whether it will snow in Skopje on a given date. It can only tell you that the models are less optimistic than a month ago. The question is whether those who are supposed to clear the roads will read the forecast as an excuse to prepare less, or as a warning that a single strong cyclone is enough for chaos?