Another visit by a senior European official, and once again the same story in a slightly different dress. European Council President Antonio Costa arrived in Skopje to meet PM Hristijan Mickoski - and almost nobody expects a dramatic turn. Costa holds to the familiar line: Macedonia must fulfil the obligations from the 2022 negotiating framework, which includes writing Bulgarians into the Constitution.

That Costa won't budge from that position is all but certain - it would mean questioning decisions the European Council has already adopted. But the political reality isn't the same as a few years ago. In the meantime Macedonia has pressed on with reforms, earned positive marks on parts of the European agenda and access to new funds, while the EU itself has faced geopolitical challenges that put enlargement back on the agenda.

The war in Ukraine, intensified Russian influence in parts of the Balkans, China's economic presence - all of it has pushed the Western Balkans high up Brussels' agenda. And that's exactly where the question of the EU's credibility becomes crucial. More and more often, European circles say the Union must show it keeps its own promises to candidates.

The government has lately insisted the debate not be reduced to whether there will be constitutional changes, but that the question of guarantees be opened too. The essence, from its angle, isn't just to fulfil one obligation - it's to get assurance that no new demands and new blockades will follow. And that question carries a weight every Macedonian understands.

Because after the Prespa Agreement, the name change and a string of concessions, a large part of the public has a well-founded suspicion: does every next concession really bring membership closer, or just open room for the next condition? The history of the past decade gives an uncomfortable answer - every concession was sent off as "the last," and after each one came another.

Realistically, the EU has no legal mechanism to guarantee in advance how a member state will behave in future. Nor can Costa offer such a guarantee on his own. But he can send a political message that there's no room for new conditions outside the framework. Whether he sends that message, or sticks to the standard "fulfil the obligations" - that's the only thing worth watching from this visit. Everything else we already know by heart.