Two independent forecasting houses, two sets of calculations, one conclusion: the 2026/2027 winter in Europe will bring significantly less snow than average. The cause sits on the other side of the planet, in the warm waters of the tropical Pacific.

El Nino, the cycle that occurs when the water of the tropical Pacific is unusually warm, does not stay where it starts. It shifts the great atmospheric currents that decide where storms will head, where rain will fall and where cold air will descend. Current conditions are already pronounced, and the models show the peak could arrive in late autumn or early winter. If the forecasts hold, this will be among the strongest episodes recorded so far.

What that means for our mountains

Under a strong El Nino the pattern is recognisable: more frequent flows of warm Atlantic air towards the continent, strengthened high-pressure systems in the south, and temperatures at lower altitudes that are simply too high for snow to hold. The European ECMWF model forecasts a weak snow season for most of the continent, with the exception of mountain massifs such as the Alps and the colder northern and north-eastern areas.

The forecast for the ski season depends on altitude. Above 1,800 to 2,000 metres, the prospects for a decent natural snow base remain solid. Below that line, the dominant mild Atlantic flow does not leave much room.

Month by month, no improvement

December brings below-normal snow amounts to the lowlands across most of Europe, except the far north - westerly and south-westerly flows deliver moisture, but also temperatures that are too high. January brings no change: the high-pressure ridges in the south hold their ground. February, the month when the most snow usually falls, shows the largest deficit in the model precisely across central, western and southern Europe.

The British UKMO model covers November to January and arrives at the same picture, with one difference - it does not even forecast increased snow at higher elevations in the central part. November, it says, will bring a widespread deficit and an exceptionally late start to the season, even in the mountains.

Less does not mean none

This is the part most often lost in translation. Below-normal amounts do not mean a winter without snow. They mean less than the historical average - an area that usually gets a metre a year could end a season like this with twenty centimetres. Individual cold spells and heavy snow episodes remain entirely possible; seasonal forecasts show a trend, not a date.

It is also worth knowing what these figures are not. They are long-range seasonal estimates made three months ahead, and the atmosphere rarely sticks to a timetable. But when two independent models, the European and the British, point the same way, that is a signal even the most sceptical reader struggles to dismiss.

For a region where winter income from the mountains is not a reserve budget but the main one, and where the water from the snowpack is spent all summer, this is not a forecast about skiing. This is a question about spring.