Europe wants tougher sanctions on Russia while Trump opens the door to Russian diesel: allies drift apart before Thursday's summit

On Thursday, European leaders will call for tougher sanctions on Russia - and in doing so they are heading for a direct clash with Donald Trump. Only a few days earlier, the US president agreed with Vladimir Putin to ease restrictions on Russian diesel exports.

According to the draft joint statement, the leaders of the European Council will call for additional sanctions and measures targeting Russia's oil revenues. With that, EU governments are rejecting Trump's story that he has secured an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine.

"Russia is not interested in de-escalation, in a ceasefire or in peace," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said at a security conference in Warsaw. "That is why I am going to Brussels to ask our partners to think seriously about tightening sanctions." German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was even more direct: "Russia will only negotiate honestly under pressure." Moscow, he pointed out, keeps striking Ukraine's energy infrastructure despite Trump's announced ceasefire.

The biggest package yet

On Monday, EU foreign ministers approved the largest sanctions list so far - more than 1,600 individuals and companies were added. The European Commission is also preparing a 23rd package of sectoral sanctions, and the United Kingdom and Norway have announced that they too will step up the pressure on Moscow.

On the other side is Trump's deal: an additional 4.8 million tonnes of Russian diesel to be released onto the world market in the coming months, to ease pressure on stocks and prices. European and Ukrainian officials are sceptical - the promised amount, they say, covers barely ten or so days of American consumption.

An election calculation

Off the record, many European diplomats read Trump's U-turn as a calculation for home. The Congressional elections are next month, fuel prices shot up after the US and Israel went to war with Iran, and in his 2024 campaign Trump promised petrol under two dollars a gallon. Today voters are paying twice that. "This is about the elections," a senior EU official reportedly said. "He said he would bring prices down, and then decided to go to war with Iran."

The doubts go further still - whether Putin will respect this "ceasefire" at all. Russia kept attacking Ukraine's power grid even after the deal was announced, and Kyiv says nobody consulted it. A deal about someone else's war, struck without the side that is dying in it - the Balkans know that scene by heart.

Europe is now asking Washington to enforce its own Russia sanctions law, which Trump signed last month but has not yet applied in full. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called on Washington to align its approach with Brussels, and EU Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius said Europe urgently has to take on the main responsibility for its own defence, as the US scales back its military presence on the continent.

On Thursday, EU leaders will try to keep up the pressure on Moscow while their most powerful ally heads in the opposite direction. The question is how long Europe can sanction with one hand while America, with the other, opens the door to Russian diesel.