The ceasefire lasted exactly as long as a promise lasts in a war crisis - a few days. Iran launched several ballistic missiles at the US air base Muwaffaq al-Salti in Jordan, and US Central Command said all projectiles were intercepted, with no deaths and no material damage.

According to the statement, the missiles were fired by forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, directly from Iranian territory. „An attempted surprise attack on US forces deployed in the Middle East,” reads the official formulation. The base near Al Azraq, about a hundred kilometres east of Amman, hosts American fighter jets, helicopters, drones and logistics units.

The timing is what speaks louder here than the missiles. This is the first Iranian ballistic missile strike on a US base since Donald Trump halted attacks on Iran on Friday to leave room for negotiations. And it came just hours after Trump met Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House, with Iran the main item on the agenda.

Trump had previously said Washington was holding „very serious talks” with Tehran, but warned the military would resume heavy strikes if the negotiations did not produce quick results. So both sides are simultaneously saying they are negotiating while keeping a finger on the trigger. Which of the two signals is the real one?

The numbers demolish the „lull” picture even faster. Since the start of July, Iran has hit targets in Jordan nine times with missiles and drones. In one earlier strike a facility with American soldiers was hit, with deaths and injuries. Around 4,000 US troops are currently deployed at Jordanian military facilities.

At the same time, American and Saudi fighter jets struck weapons depots and logistics positions of pro-Iranian groups in eastern Iraq. That, US command claims, followed more than 30 drone attacks in 72 hours ordered by Iran's Revolutionary Guard. The reckoning is running while diplomacy is officially seated at the table.

One uncomfortable piece of arithmetic remains. If all the missiles were intercepted and there is not a single casualty, why were they fired at all? The answer is probably not military but negotiating: a strike that kills nobody but shows the trigger still works. The Balkans know this scene by heart - you negotiate while shooting, and afterwards someone explains it was all „pressure for peace”.