Oil prices jumped on world markets after the latest escalation in the Middle East, breaking a three-day losing streak. Brent rose more than 4 percent, US WTI by nearly as much. The market is back in the mode where one night of military operations counts for more than all the fundamentals combined.

The rise has three causes that coincided.

First, US and Saudi armed forces struck targets in Iraq overnight. US Central Command said these were groups that had directly attacked American troops in the region and Saudi energy infrastructure. Iran-backed militias in Iraq launched drones at oil facilities in Saudi Arabia's eastern region for the second day running.

Second, the US military said it had intercepted Iranian ballistic missiles aimed at American forces in the region.

Third - the least dramatic but most concrete - US crude stockpiles fell by around 3.3 million barrels in a single week.

The Strait of Hormuz is back on the table

The diplomatic strand is the one that deserves the most attention. Iran rejected Oman's proposal for 50-50 shared control over the Strait of Hormuz, insisting that Tehran must retain full control over the inbound shipping lane and part of the outbound route.

The Strait of Hormuz is the bottleneck through which a significant share of the world's oil passes. Any doubt about its security translates into price faster than any news about production or demand. That is why Oman's proposal existed at all - and why its rejection is not a diplomatic footnote.

What analysts are forecasting

The assessments are that if geopolitical tensions continue, Brent will move in a range of 80 to 100 dollars a barrel, with events in the Middle East remaining the key factor for the global energy market. Prices are further supported by expectations that OPEC+ could temporarily halt its planned production increase from October.

A 20-dollar range is as wide as an admission that nobody knows. It is also the most honest thing in the entire analysis.

Watch what you read this week

One observation for anyone following the numbers: the levels quoted in different reports this week differ substantially, because the market is moving almost by the hour and each report captures a different moment. When the price rises and falls on the same day, a headline saying „oil jumped” and one saying „oil fell” can both be accurate - they are just looking at different hours.

That is a good reminder that the price of a barrel these days is not an economic indicator. It is a thermometer of war.