EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen has publicly asked Donald Trump not to cut off the free flow of American diesel to Europe. "It is in the interest of both the US and Europe to have as free a flow of energy as possible between our countries," Jørgensen said. The warning comes after Trump this week publicly backed the idea of restricting US diesel exports to bring down record fuel prices in America.

"I said: let's not export diesel. We produce a lot of diesel. I asked my people for that," Trump said. A sentence spoken for a domestic audience - but addressed to Brussels.

"This winter could be very, very bad for Europe, maybe the worst we've had since 2022," Jørgensen warned. In his view, the most likely scenario isn't a physical shortage of energy, but extremely high prices. European diesel is already hovering near record levels, war in the Middle East has cut off or seriously disrupted some traditional supply routes, and Russia has restricted its diesel exports. The result: Europe has become even more dependent on American refineries.

The numbers explain the fear. This year the US supplied about a third of Europe's total diesel imports from outside the EU, and in August the share was even higher. Northwestern Europe is especially dependent. Traders warn that a US ban would be a heavy blow, because Europe would have to compete with other regions for limited diesel volumes from India, the Middle East and other sources.

Mixed messages then started coming out of Washington. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said a full ban would be too blunt an instrument, one that could create new problems on the American market too - disrupting refinery operations and indirectly pushing up gasoline and jet fuel prices. The White House denied a report that it was preparing a full 90-day ban on diesel exports. "No one is considering a full ban," Wright said, but he confirmed the administration is looking for ways to keep larger volumes of diesel on the US market, including voluntary export limits agreed with refiners. For Europe, the mere possibility is enough to cause nerves.

Diesel isn't the only problem. European natural gas prices recently hit their highest level since the 2022 energy crisis, and Brent crude is holding above 100 dollars a barrel. Europe is heading into winter with expensive gas, record-priced diesel and fresh uncertainty over American deliveries. Jørgensen admits that the long-term solution - less dependence on fossil fuels - doesn't solve this winter's problem. "If we don't get out of this dependence on fossil fuels, I can promise everyone this will become a permanent crisis," the commissioner said.

In 2022 Europe learned what dependence on Moscow costs. Is it now learning the same lesson, just with Washington on the other end of the pipe?