On the exchanges of Southeast Europe, the price of electricity passed 700 euros per megawatt-hour. The biggest jump was in Slovenia and Croatia; Greece and Bulgaria held the lowest prices. The most intense days were 3 and 4 August, when prices rose 50 to 100 percent compared with previous weeks.

The reason is not geopolitics, not a sanction and not somebody's cartel. The reason is that there is not enough water.

Rivers are shutting down reactors

The low level of the Danube forced Hungary's Paks nuclear plant to cut output by 90 percent. Romania's Cernavoda cut it by 50 percent. Slovenia's Krško reduced capacity by 20 percent after high water temperatures in the Sava made it impossible to discharge heat - environmental rules forbid warming the river above set thresholds.

Hydro plants have the same illness. In Serbia, Iron Gate 1 is running at 20 percent of normal output, Iron Gate 2 at 30. And on the other side of the equation, consumption in the region rose between 5 and 20 percent - because when it is 40 degrees outside, air conditioning is not a suggestion.

So the same heat that makes electricity essential also makes it unavailable. It is a scenario with nobody to blame, and that is exactly what makes it harder than the ones where there is somebody.

Romania sank barges to raise the Danube

The most vivid detail in the whole story is the measure Romania resorted to in order to keep Cernavoda running: sinking barges to lift the water level. The plant covers around a fifth of the country's electricity production.

That is not a solution. That is the improvisation of a state running out of options - and it is worth remembering as an image of the summer of 2026.

It is not just the region

The problem is spreading to the continent's largest nuclear producer as well. According to reports from the European energy sector, during the heatwaves in late June and mid-July, French plants had to temporarily reduce available capacity by eight to nine gigawatts - around a fifth of the country's normal summer output.

Krško, for comparison, produces 35 to 38 percent of Slovenia's electricity, and half of its output goes to Croatia, where it covers 15 to 20 percent of demand. When one plant coughs, two countries sweat.

Where we stand in this story

Macedonia is part of the same regional market and buys on the same exchanges where the price jumped. Our hydro plants are drinking the same drought. This is not a forecast about anyone's bill - it is the structure of the market we are plugged into.

The question worth asking is not what electricity will cost in August. The question is whether energy planning here even includes the possibility that the rivers our plants and our neighbours' plants rely on will not be there in the same volume next decade. So far that assumption has not appeared in a single strategic document.