Around 14,500 first-graders have enrolled this year. In 2020, when that cohort was born, 19,031 children were born in Macedonia. The difference is not a rounding error - those are thousands of children who disappeared from the system somewhere between the maternity ward and the school desk.

Education Minister Vesna Janevska confirmed at a press conference that the figure is lower than last year's and stressed it is not final, because late enrolments run until the end of September. That is true. But to close the gap between 14,500 and 19,031, another 5,000 or so children would have to register in September - which has never happened in any year so far.

Three hundred fewer classes and 26 schools closing

The minister stated the consequence without wrapping it up: primary education has around 200 fewer classes, secondary around 100 fewer. This year, 26 rural schools with no first-grader enrolled at all are expected to close, and in some of them only five to eight pupils are studying.

Janevska defends the decision by arguing it is about quality, not savings: "If we have a central school with 200 children and 2.5 kilometres away a school with 18 children, there is no logic in keeping children trapped in that school," she said.

There is also a rule that softens the measure - schools will not be closed if the nearest one is 15 or 20 kilometres away, or if the roads are unsuitable and unsafe for small children.

The argument about socialising children from combined classes is serious and has grounds. The problem is that every closed rural school shuts one more door in a village that is already emptying. First the school goes, then the families with children, then the village. And no reform of the school network solves that.

The torn textbooks: the responsibility belongs to others

The same appearance brought an answer to the question that fills social media every September - ripped, unusable textbooks. Janevska did not try to promise there would be none.

"I cannot say there will be none. Unfortunately, I believe there will be some. But I sincerely believe it will be kept to a minimum and will be incidental," the minister said.

But the key sentence is this one: "Those who did not request them - that is their responsibility, and in future the Ministry will not take on anyone else's responsibility, because for three years we have been running a system that is stable and that ensures a stable supply of textbooks."

In other words - the system is stable, the electronic reporting system for damaged textbooks was open for a long time, and if your child gets a book with no cover on 1 September, the fault lies with the school that failed to report in time. Under the rules, textbooks are replaced every five years, and head teachers are obliged to log damaged copies, charge parents for them and order new ones.

Formally - it all holds together. Practically, the child with the ripped book does not care who failed to notify whom on time.

All-day teaching as the answer to everything

Janevska stressed that so far no permanently employed teacher has been dismissed and that outside Skopje staffing is sufficient. In some Skopje municipalities, such as Aerodrom, teachers are missing and she expects hiring there.

The solution she offers is all-day teaching - two class teachers per group, one in the first half of the day and one in the second, with children at school until 4pm. The aim, as she puts it, is to leave parents free.

If the number of children is falling and the number of classes falls with it, then the question for the coming years is not how many classes will go dark. The question is whether anyone has a plan for the cause - why, out of 19,031 children born, only 14,500 reach the first grade.