Two weeks ago Donald Trump's administration cancelled the deployment of 4,000 troops from the 2nd Armored Brigade of the 1st Cavalry Division to Poland. Today, Trump personally announced that Poland will get 5,000 additional American troops. The same administration, the same week, two completely different decisions for the same country.

"Based on the successful election of Poland's current president Karol Nawrocki, whom I proudly support, and our relationship with him, I am pleased to announce that the United States will send 5,000 more troops to Poland," Trump wrote on Truth Social. A message in which almost everything is political - and almost nothing is militarily strategic.

Nawrocki was elected in June 2025 with backing from the nationalist Law and Justice Party. He often supports Trump's decisions - which fuels tension with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose government is pro-European. Tusk earlier said Poland "would seize every opportunity" to increase US military presence, but also warned that this shouldn't be done "by taking" troops from other NATO allies.

The Pentagon's reaction was, predictably, controlled. Spokesman Sean Parnell described the decision as a "temporary postponement" and called Poland an "exemplary American ally." But in the corridors, an anonymous senior defence official complained: "We spent the last two weeks answering for the first announcement. Now we don't even know what this second one means."

What does this mean for the Balkans and Europe? That NATO planning from this side cannot lean on American military decisions when those decisions change within two weeks. It's an implication not only Europe understands - so does Moscow. When the military of NATO's largest power is under political whiplash, that's a signal for everyone.

As retired US diplomat Ian Kelly put it: "These are not well-thought-out decisions. These are impulsive decisions, based on Trump's whims." That's one opinion. The other is that such impulses, when they are inside the US government, have geopolitical implications - including for the Balkans, which can no longer look at American policy as a stable reference, even when it favours the region.