For nearly a decade Republicans had one thing that was untouchably theirs - the economy. Ask an American voter who runs the economy better and the answer was predictable throughout Trump's entire first term, throughout Biden's presidency, and at the start of this term. Now that lead is gone. According to an Ipsos poll, 37 percent of registered voters think the Democrats have the better approach to the economy, against 36 percent for the Republicans. The remaining 27 percent are undecided or backing someone else.

A one-point gap is not an earthquake. But when that point is the first in nearly ten years, it is not the point that matters - it is the trend carrying it.

35 percent

Support for Donald Trump has fallen to 35 percent - two points below last month's poll, and only one point above the lowest point of his current term. The survey covered 4,505 adult Americans, with a margin of error of two points.

The reason cited loudest is the one visible at every filling station. After the US-Israeli strikes on Iran in February and the war that followed, fuel prices jumped. Since the war began petrol has risen over 25 percent - an American at the pump now pays more than a dollar a gallon above what they paid before the conflict.

Trump says he ordered the strikes to destroy Iran's nuclear programme, limit Tehran's ability to attack regional rivals and create conditions for toppling Iran's religious authorities. Whether that happened is one discussion. What happened at the pumps is another, and voters appear to be having the second one.

The congressional elections

If congressional elections were held now, 42 percent of registered voters would back a Democratic candidate against 37 percent for a Republican. Among independents the Democratic lead is a full 12 points. On 3 November the Republicans will be defending narrow majorities in both chambers.

Here it pays to be cautious, and this is something you rarely read in headlines: national polls say very little about individual races. Of 435 House seats, only around thirty are expected to be genuinely uncertain, and roughly eight Senate races are open. So all this arithmetic will ultimately be settled in a few dozen districts.

Trump's response

Trump routinely dismisses polls showing dissatisfaction. "My REAL poll numbers, not those made up by the fake media, are the best ever," he wrote on Truth Social on Monday, before the latest poll was published.

The reaction is a familiar scene to anyone who follows politics in this region. When the number is bad, the problem is whoever is measuring. The only difference is that in the US the measurers are private agencies with published methodology and margins of error, so the claim is easy to check. The remaining question is whether that matters at all to someone who has already decided who to believe.