Trump signed the Russia sanctions law, and now he wants a way out: the White House may quietly bypass the measures before October 18

US President Donald Trump will most likely not impose new sanctions on Russia - despite the law Congress passed and he personally signed on September 18. That's according to Politico, citing sources in Washington. The White House can use the waiver the law allows, and Moscow would be spared a new wave of American economic restrictions.

The deadline for applying the law's key provisions is October 18, and so far the administration is showing no sign of getting ready. A Senate source told the paper that the most likely scenario is for the White House to drop the additional measures without much public debate, with Congress having no easy way to stop it.

What isn't happening says the most. According to the source, the State Department and other departments have not begun the usual preparations that precede a major package of international sanctions. When Washington really wants to punish a country economically, it means coordination between the State Department, the Treasury and the Commerce Department, accompanied by administrative procedures. There are no such signals now. No final decision has been officially announced.

A law with a back door

The Russia and Iran sanctions law, named after the late Republican senator Lindsey Graham, who for years pushed for tougher economic pressure on Moscow, provides for sanctions on senior Russian political and military officials, state companies, the energy and defence sectors, and the network of tankers used to move Russian oil in spite of Western restrictions. It also provides for secondary sanctions on foreign companies and countries that keep doing business with Russia, including the option of steep tariffs on imports from countries that buy Russian energy.

But the law also has a back door: a provision allowing the president to waive certain sanctions if he judges that imposing them runs against US national interests. That requires a written justification and notification to Congress, but the president keeps wide discretion. It is precisely this provision, according to the sources, that the White House could invoke in the coming days.

Diesel instead of sanctions

The report comes just days after Trump and Vladimir Putin struck a deal on deliveries of Russian diesel to the American and world markets. Under the agreement announced on October 9, Russia is to deliver more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately, with further deliveries planned in the coming months. Washington temporarily eased restrictions on Russian diesel, arguing that the extra volumes will bring down prices on the US market.

Part of Congress, Republicans included, is unhappy: extra revenue from energy exports could help Russia finance the war in Ukraine. The Balkans know this scene - great powers sign laws with one hand and cut deals with the other. The question that remains is whether Congress will let the president's signature weigh less than his diesel deal.