Ukrainian forces struck Russia's Krasnodar region overnight. The target was the Afipsky refinery, one of the largest in the south of the country. A major fire broke out after the explosions, and air raid sirens sounded across the region.

Residents posted footage showing fire spreading across the refinery grounds. Russian authorities have yet to say what was hit or how great the damage is. Nor is it known what weapon was used, and the Ukrainian military has not commented on the operation.

Why a refinery specifically

Afipsky processes around 6.25 million tonnes of crude a year - roughly two percent of Russia's total refining capacity. It produces petrol, diesel, gas condensates, heavy oil derivatives and sulphur. This is not the first time: a drone strike caused a fire at the same site in June.

Two percent sounds small. But wars are not fought with percentages of capacity - they are fought with how much fuel reaches the front and how much money enters the budget. Ukraine systematically targets refineries and energy infrastructure with long-range drones, and the logic is simple: less fuel means a slower army, less export means a thinner treasury.

The war that moved deep into Russia

The same night, air defences were activated near the Novoshakhtinsk refinery in the Rostov region too, with no confirmed damage so far. Ukrainian forces have recently been intensifying strikes deep inside Russian territory - energy facilities, but also large logistics hubs.

That is a shift worth noting. In the first years of the war the front was a line on a map. Now the targets are hundreds of kilometres away from it, and Russia's interior is no longer the rear - it is part of the battlefield.

For Europe that means one thing rarely said out loud: every successful strike on a Russian refinery brings the negotiating table one step closer, while at the same time extending the logic in which victory is measured in burning plants. How long can a war be fought that way before somebody decides talking is cheaper?