The debate over whether the planet is warming ended long ago. The new research answers the more serious question - whether it is warming faster than before. The answer is yes, with statistical certainty above 98 percent.

The study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, found that between 2015 and 2025 the Earth warmed at a rate of 0.35 degrees Celsius per decade. For comparison, the average from 1970 to 2015 was around 0.2 degrees per decade. That is an acceleration of roughly three quarters - within a single generation.

What makes the figure hard to dismiss is the method. The researchers analysed five global temperature datasets and deliberately stripped out natural variation - El Niño cycles, solar activity and volcanic eruptions. „We remove the known natural influences from the observational data in order to reduce the noise. That makes the underlying long-term warming signal clearer”, explained Grant Foster, a retired statistician and co-author of the study.

The 1.5-degree limit

The other co-author, Stefan Rahmstorf, states the conclusion without softening it: „If the warming rates of the last decade continue, the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degree limit will be permanently exceeded before 2030.”

Before 2030. Not before the end of the century, not in some abstract future for somebody's grandchildren to decide about - within four years. Rahmstorf adds that how much further the planet warms depends on how fast global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels reach zero.

Why this is the first time

The acceleration had been suspected until now, but was never confirmed with statistical significance. This is the first time scientists can say that the temperature rise is not only high but steepening - and prove it.

The Balkans feel it summer after summer, in heatwaves that stopped being news because they became the schedule. The difference between 0.2 and 0.35 degrees per decade sounds small on paper. In practice it is the difference between a summer with a few hot days and a summer where red warnings are the default.