The seventy-first day of US-Israeli operations against Iran. At sea - the US is maintaining a full naval blockade of Iranian ports. The numbers speak for themselves: 58 commercial vessels diverted since April 13, four of them completely disabled to keep them from entering or leaving Iranian ports. CENTCOM confirms the blockade is continuing.

The military operations are not only preventive. F/A-18 Super Hornet aircraft from the carrier USS George H.W. Bush struck two Iranian tankers: M/T Si Star III and M/T Sevda. The strategy is precise - they hit the joints, the goal is to disable without sinking. But the effect on the Iranian economy is the same: the ships are not sailing.

Iran's response: near the port of Khasab in Oman, six people were reported missing after a suspected US strike. Several wounded were taken to the hospital in Khasab. Iran's ambassador to the UN responded with an official note, asserting the "right to self-defence" and warning of "catastrophic consequences."

What comes next? The diplomatic channel is still open - Iran is waiting for a reply on the US peace offer. According to a CIA estimate, the Iranian economy can hold out under the blockade for around four months. That is the real clock. Not the military one - the economic one. When four months turn into three, or into two, Tehran will be forced into a decision that neither side wants to see.

For the Balkan reader: oil prices are tied directly to this. When the US blockades the Strait of Hormuz, that means more expensive fuel in Skopje, Zagreb, Sofia, Tirana. The conflict is far away, but the bubble at the petrol pump in Aerodrom or Karpoš - that is close.