Kyiv has sent an offer to Moscow - through a third party, since there is evidently no direct channel - for the two countries to stop striking civilian targets in the Black Sea. There is still no answer. The offer was passed through a mediator, according to sources familiar with the situation, which in itself says how deep the mistrust runs between the two sides after this many years of war.

This is not a diplomatic matter. It is a grain matter. Russia and Ukraine are among the largest exporters on the world agricultural market, and for some time now they have been accusing each other of striking ships carrying agricultural cargo. When the two biggest grain suppliers are shelling each other's freighters, the price does not stay in the Black Sea.

The number that tells the whole story

The Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports in the Odesa region cut Ukrainian grain exports by 76 percent in August, compared with the same period last year. The agricultural sector is already warning of enormous consequences for the economy if this continues. Seventy-six percent is not a decline - it is an export channel being switched off.

Turkey has tried to formalise what is currently being passed along in whispers. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced on Saturday that Russia and Ukraine had been handed a proposal for both countries to declare a moratorium on mutual attacks in the Black Sea. For years Ankara has played the role of the only address where both sides still pick up the phone.

What stands out is the wording. It does not ask for an end to the war, or a withdrawal, or talks about territory. It asks only - do not shell the grain ships. When that is the highest ambition of a peace proposal, you can see exactly how far off everything else is.

The Balkans know this scene by heart: an agreement that settles nothing substantial, but is sold as a step forward. The question is whether Moscow has any interest in replying at all, when the blockade is working exactly as it was designed to.