On the night of 5 August, at Leipzig/Halle airport, a drone loaded with explosives crashed into a cargo plane belonging to the Ukrainian company Antonov Airlines. According to the German press, the aircraft was carrying ammunition destined for Ukraine.

Surveillance footage, as reported, shows the drone flying deliberately towards the Ukrainian plane at around 7:30pm and striking its wing. The Semtex device did not detonate - it bounced off and fell to the ground, with the explosive probably separating on impact. According to other accounts, the drone struck near the fuel tank.

For four hours nobody noticed

This is the part of the story that should be read by anyone who thinks European airports are a fortress. The security systems did not detect the drone at all. The device on the apron was found - four hours later - by the driver of an airport van.

So if the explosive had detonated, there would have been nobody to prevent it. And if it failed to detonate by error, the only reason there are no casualties is that something didn't work the way whoever sent the drone intended.

A DNA trail leading backwards

Five days later investigators isolated DNA traces from the drone. The person has not yet been identified, but according to reports there is a match in a European database pointing to Lithuania. The same DNA, it is claimed, matches evidence from an attack on 20 July 2024 on a DHL logistics centre at the same airport, where a parcel bomb exploded on the ground only because the cargo plane was running late.

Lithuanian prosecutors have already spoken of terrorism and sabotage on behalf of a foreign power regarding the 2024 attacks, pointing to Russian military intelligence and to operations in Germany, Poland and Britain.

Nobody wants to say the name out loud

The German federal prosecutor's office has opened an investigation. Chancellor Merz avoided mentioning Russia. The interior minister mentioned only possible "foreign involvement". The Kremlin denied it and called the attack a provocation.

Here is what genuinely worries. If there is a DNA trail, if there is a database in which that trail has already appeared once, and if Lithuanian prosecutors have already named the power behind the previous attack - what is missing for someone to say it out loud? A diplomatic response is one thing. But when a state cannot bring itself to name, then every next drone takes off into a slightly less risky environment.

The Balkans have heard for decades that Europe is stable and instability is here. A drone carrying explosives on a German runway, lying undetected for four hours, corrects that map.