Iran has begun retaliatory strikes on American targets and US allies in the Middle East, regional sources report. Local reports from Bahrain speak of attacks in zones where the US military is stationed - including the base of the US Fifth Fleet. Footage circulating on social media allegedly shows missile strikes near the base.

Here the caveat is mandatory: there is no official confirmation of the extent of the damage. It's not even clear whether the strikes directly hit the bases or landed nearby. In the fog of war, the first footage and the first claims are most often the first casualties of the truth.

What is clear is the message. Bahrain is no random address - it's home to the command of the Fifth Fleet, which covers the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea and parts of the Indian Ocean. A strike in that zone, on target or not, is a message that Tehran can aim at the symbols of American naval control - and that Washington's allies in the region are not out of range.

The escalation has its chronology: first a US Apache helicopter was downed, then the US struck Iranian air-defense systems and radars, and the Revolutionary Guard refused to accept the American version and announced revenge against US allies across the region. Now that announcement is being carried out. Meanwhile, drones have been spotted over Iraq moving toward Erbil - among the possible targets are Kurdish groups that Tehran considers separatist.

For us, far from the Gulf but close to the petrol pump, the equation is simple: every escalation around the Strait of Hormuz is a blow to the price of oil - and that's felt by everyone who fills a tank, from Baghdad to Bitola. The world watches Bahrain, while the bill, as always, will be paid by the one who took no part in the brawl.