By May 2026, Moscow is facing cumulative pressures it didn't face before. Ukrainian drone strikes have intensified, destroying military infrastructure and forcing Russia into massive internet blackouts as a counter-measure. Those shutdowns - ordered by the FSB - reached 2,000 events per month by the end of 2025, disrupting the daily lives of ordinary Russians, especially in Moscow and Saint Petersburg.

That matters. Until recently, the war in Ukraine, for the average Russian, was "somewhere far away". Drone strikes have brought the consequences directly to citizens - who had largely been insulated until now. That shifts the political maths inside the country.

Putin's rating dropped from 80 to 71 percent between December and April. Independent polling shows 67 percent of Russians now favour peace talks. Economic troubles are piling onto the thin mood - the first drop in Russian GDP since 2023 came in the first quarter of 2026, with recession forecasts revised downward to growth of just 0.4 percent.

Military losses are massive - estimates put Russia at 518,000 troop casualties, depleting the pool of volunteers willing to fight. For the first time since the start of the full-scale offensive, Ukraine has a net territorial gain - something that hadn't happened since April 2025. The picture of the military balance is no longer what it was a year ago.

The Victory Day parade in May showed unusual weakness. Analysts suggest Putin is acknowledging that a military victory is impossible and may be pivoting towards negotiations - though scepticism about his sincerity remains. A Balkan audience knows this script: the leader does not admit defeat, he changes the framing so that what is defeat looks like a diplomatic success. We've done that more than once.