Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly told Donald Trump a few days ago something blunt: that Vladimir Putin "may regret" invading Ukraine. China rushed to deny the story. But CNN, with an interesting analysis, shows: Xi wouldn't be wrong - Russia really is losing in Ukraine.

The numbers are brutal. According to Western estimates, the Russian casualty rate reaches 30,000 to 40,000 killed and wounded a month, with no territorial gain. That's a mortality level every state carries in a world war. Not in 2026. Total Russian casualties since the start of the invasion are now estimated at over a million people - and Russia can no longer replace them.

Even worse for the Kremlin: Ukraine is making net territorial gains this year, not Russia. In other words, although Russia presents itself as losing ground inch by inch, the real picture is the opposite. The Ukrainian drone programme has transformed the war. The zone of 10 to 15 kilometres along the front is practically impossible for Russian advance without mass losses. Ukrainian drones regularly hit deep Russia - military airfields, factories, energy infrastructure, ammunition depots.

Especially important: the drones reach Moscow. The proof - the Russian state agency last week had to report one of the biggest Ukrainian drone strikes near the capital. That's what is driving Putin to ask for a ceasefire for the Victory Day parade - not for peace reasons, but out of fear that a drone incident lands in front of 50,000 people on Red Square.

What makes all this important for Trump? According to CNN, US diplomacy has been working until now on the assumption that Ukraine is the smaller power, has to cede territory to get peace. That assumption is now wrong. Ukraine is the stronger one, Russia is weakening. NATO is bigger than before the invasion (Finland and Sweden joined). Putin has nothing to show for his "special operation".

For a Balkan reader this is an important message. For years we listened to how "Russia is going to win". Analysts were always early in expecting what would happen. Now there are clear numbers - and they say something else. The question now is whether Trump will use them. Xi in the meantime watches and learns - not for Ukraine, but for Taiwan. Every major player right now is assessing whether fast military operations against determined defenders have a chance. For now - no.