The international credit rating agency Standard & Poor's has confirmed Macedonia's BB- credit rating, with a stable outlook. The Finance Ministry announced the news on Saturday under a headline highlighting public investment and domestic demand as the engines of growth. That is true. But it is half the report.

The agency expects economic growth of around 3.6% in 2026 and 2027, and then an average of around 3.3% a year over 2027-2029. The main engine is the big infrastructure projects, above all Corridors 8 and 10d, thanks to which investment in the first half of 2026 rose by more than 9%. Growth is also held up by domestic consumption - higher wages and pensions and a better labour market. And all of that, according to the agency, despite the spillover from the war in the Middle East through more expensive energy.

The other half is debt. High public investment, the financing of infrastructure projects and liabilities linked to state-owned companies will push public debt to around 57% of GDP by 2029. The budget deficit, despite the expected gradual fiscal consolidation, would average around 3.4% of GDP over 2027-2029. The agency considers the cost of servicing the debt sustainable.

Market access is not a problem for now - in January the state issued two Eurobonds of 500 million euros each. But the conditions for a better rating are written in black and white: a lasting improvement in budget results, a sustainable reduction in net public debt and stronger economic growth. None of those conditions is met by cutting a ribbon on a highway.

The rating is a good signal for investors, and holding steady in a year of energy shocks is no small thing. But when growth is built on borrowing, the real test doesn't come at the opening of the road - it comes when the loan has to be repaid. Will the corridors generate enough economy to pay off the debt they are being built with?