Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski, while inspecting construction work on the bridge on Ljubljanska Street in Skopje, announced two pieces of news that don't sit well together. The first: according to analysis of the exchanges, he expects diesel and petrol to get cheaper next week, and the government is also negotiating with OKTA for an additional discount. The second: by the end of the month a new, formal budget revision will have to be made, because the money isn't there.

He gave the numbers himself. "On the basis of excise duty alone, estimates are that around five billion denars will be missing. If you add the value added tax rate, especially for diesel fuel, which has been reduced, we arrive at a figure of 7-8 billion denars, which cannot be covered by reallocation," Mickoski said. Seven to eight billion denars is more than 110 million euros.

That is the price of the measures keeping fuel under control - the reduced excise duty and the reduced VAT on diesel. Mickoski says that with the additional discount Macedonia will be "by far the country with the lowest fuel price in the region, and maybe in Europe". At the pump, that sounds great. But fuel that the state makes cheaper through lost revenue doesn't actually become cheaper. It gets paid for out of a different pocket.

That is exactly where the opposition strikes. SDSM says the budget revision is "an admission, not a victory" and that the gap will be covered with new borrowing. "Citizens lose twice: a more expensive life, plus repaying the loan with interest," they say. They also point to the latest decision by the Energy Regulatory Commission on 28 September: diesel fell by 4.5 denars to 100 denars a litre, 95-octane petrol stayed at 100 denars, and 98-octane went up to 102.

In the background is the government's decision to borrow again on international financial markets, justified on the grounds that the money is needed to refinance debt and fund the budget deficit. The opposition is talking about a new loan of 1.3 billion euros.

The prime minister claims the country is energy-stable, that the overhauls at the REK Bitola and Oslomej power plants are nearly finished, and that inflation is "50 per cent lower than the EU average". Maybe. But when a government promises cheaper fuel and admits a hole in the treasury in the same statement, the question isn't whether the pump price drops by a denar or two. The question is who covers the difference - and at what interest rate.