US President Donald Trump announced his intention to speak with Taiwan's president Lai Ching-te about a possible arms sale to Taiwan - a significant departure from a long-standing diplomatic protocol. Taiwan's Foreign Ministry confirmed Lai is "ready to talk" with Trump, stressing that China is threatening peace in the Taiwan Strait while Taiwan is trying to preserve the status quo.

Direct talks between US and Taiwanese leaders have not happened since 1979 - the year Washington broke off official relations in order to recognise Beijing. Which means every US president from Carter to Biden consciously upheld the protocol - and Trump would be the first to break it after 47 years.

The proposed arms package, worth 14 billion dollars, reportedly includes counter-drone equipment and air defence systems. Trump said he has not yet decided whether to proceed. Beijing is currently blocking a planned Pentagon visit while waiting for the decision. During Xi Jinping's recent trip to Beijing, the Chinese leader warned Trump of a possible superpower conflict if Taiwan is "mishandled".

Trump dismissed the possibility of conflict, but admitted that Xi "feels very strongly" about Taiwan. Taiwanese President Lai said Taiwan is "a sovereign, independent, democratic state" and that peace "will not be sacrificed or traded". The US approved an 11 billion dollar arms sale to Taiwan in December.

For a Balkan audience this isn't a distant story. The same pattern - two powers negotiating the fate of a third, smaller territory - is the pattern we've been living with since the Congress of Berlin. The question is whether Trump will take a step no previous president has taken. History will be written in the coming weeks, not in a few years.