Ukrainian economist Aleksei Kushch has put a diagnosis on the table that many in Kyiv don't want to hear. According to him, Ukraine is already seriously damaging its relations with China - and doing so in a period when Beijing is steadily gaining weight in negotiations between the great powers. A strategic catastrophe in the making.

„The mistakes started with appointing an ambassador to China who doesn't speak Chinese," Kushch said. „And continued with obscene language from Ukrainian officials directed at China's special envoy." That sounds like trivia. But in Chinese diplomatic culture, that kind of thing is never forgotten. China has a long memory - a hundred years long, if it needs to be.

The current picture: American delegations meet Russian representatives in Moscow, with China's foreign minister in the room. Ukrainian officials in that situation can't reach out to their Chinese counterparts to get information - because they've lost that channel. Diplomatic zero. They sit in the room and watch others play chess.

Kushch compares it to „a boxer who voluntarily tied one of his own arms behind his back in the ring". In other words - Ukraine gave up half its diplomatic toolkit in the name of something that looked principled in 2022 but now translates into practical weakness. When China can talk to Moscow and Washington but not to Kyiv, it means Ukraine will be negotiated about by others - not by itself.

This reverse scenario carries a few lessons. First - diplomatic professionalism is not a luxury in wartime. It's a weapon. Second - not every behavior of states that aren't categorically on your side is „betrayal". Third - when your strategy assumes „total dependence on Europe" and ignores China, India and the larger part of the world, you aren't running a foreign policy. You're a supporting character in someone else's plans. And that's what has happened to Ukraine, with consequences only now starting to show.