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Cheap fuel will cost the treasury 6-7 billion denars: Mickoski flags a possible second budget revision this year

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Cheap fuel will cost the treasury 6-7 billion denars: Mickoski flags a possible second budget revision this year

Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski has announced that another budget revision is possible before the end of the year, after the one passed in July. The reason is the cut in excise duty and VAT on fuel, which the government is using to cushion rising petroleum prices. From excise duty alone, he said, about five billion denars less will flow into the treasury, and about another billion less because of the lower VAT. In total 6 to 7 billion denars, or between 97 and 113 million euros.

"We expect to be 6-7 billion denars short of what we planned by the end of the year, which is why we may well have another budget revision before the year is out," Mickoski said after opening the renovated Stiv Naumov student dormitory in Skopje. He called it a huge sacrifice for a budget like ours, but said the priority is to protect people's living standards and, as he claims, the lowest fuel prices in Europe.

The July revision set total revenue at 379.5 billion denars and spending at 425.8 billion. The deficit is projected at 46.3 billion denars, or 4.1 percent of GDP. According to the latest execution data, about 4.9 billion euros has been spent so far, more than 70 percent of the annual spending plan, while revenue stands at about 4.2 billion euros, or roughly 68 percent of the target.

Finance Minister Gordana Dimitrieska-Kochoska does not rule out a new revision and says it is nothing unusual - in 2022 there were two. She insists that even with a new revision the deficit will stay at the projected 4.1 percent of GDP. If revenue falls and the deficit stays the same, the maths is simple: something has to be cut. The July revision found extra money for capital investment, local development, agriculture and social protection. Which of those will feel the new scissors first?

Inflation, according to the prime minister, is under control: 2.3 percent in July, 2.6 in August, below the European average. Cheap fuel helps keep that picture calm. But a subsidised price is not a free price - it just gets paid somewhere else, through the budget, while the price of oil on world markets, hovering above 100 dollars a barrel, does not depend on Skopje. How many budget revisions can the "cheapest in Europe" policy survive if the barrel price doesn't come down?