Preliminary September data show prices in the eurozone's biggest economies rising faster than expected. In Germany consumer prices rose 3.3 percent year on year, above economists' forecasts and the highest in almost three years. France is at 3.4 percent, Italy at 4.1. Spain went furthest - 4.9 percent, its highest rate since February 2023.

The main culprit is energy. The sharp jump in fuel prices caused by the war in Iran is pushing inflation up, and in Spain pricier holiday packages are adding to it. Core inflation, which strips out the most volatile energy and food prices, is speeding up too - in Spain from 2.9 to 3.1 percent. In August annual eurozone inflation was 3.2 percent, and energy alone was up a hefty 14.3 percent. For September economists expect a jump to 3.7 percent, with the official eurozone figure due on 2 October.

The European Central Bank has already raised rates twice this year, most recently in September by 25 basis points. The question now is whether a third hike comes at the October meeting or waits until December, when new projections arrive. Even governors who usually favour looser policy are not ruling one out, among them Greece's Yannis Stournaras and Malta's Alexander Demarco.

ECB President Christine Lagarde is cautious for now. "We do not react to energy prices, but to the risk that they become embedded in inflation," she told the European Parliament, adding that so far there is no evidence the energy shock is spilling over into higher wages and broader underlying inflation.

Macedonia is not in the eurozone, but the denar is pegged to the euro. Whether and when Frankfurt's decisions show up in the interest rates on domestic loans will be up to the National Bank - but with a currency tied to the euro, there is not much room to go your own way. The next signal comes on 2 October with the figure for the whole eurozone. If it lands close to double the 2 percent target, the question in Frankfurt will no longer be whether, but when.