The ceasefire between the US and Iran lasted as long as it lasted - and just as diplomats were talking about a lasting agreement, US military forces destroyed two Iranian boats allegedly attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, a new series of strikes on Iranian air-defence systems has been confirmed, after they opened fire on American aircraft.

Hormuz is the throat of the world economy. Around 20 percent of global oil production and a significant share of liquefied gas pass through it. Any military incident in these waters lifts oil prices, triggers stock-market panic, and raises serious questions for producers in Europe and Asia. The Balkans - which import almost everything - are directly affected.

US Central Command claims the strikes are „defensive, not escalatory". That is a standard formulation that answers nothing - because the difference between defence and escalation in these conditions is determined precisely by those who opened fire. Iran has not reacted officially, but local sources report explosions near Bandar Abbas, Iran's main Gulf port, with casualties among the Revolutionary Guards.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a potential deal with Iran „may take several days", but that an open Hormuz remains an „essential priority" for Washington. Translation: we will keep it open, and you can either help us or take the pain. This is the language of force, not diplomacy.

The question for the Balkans: if oil prices jump 15 percent next week (which would be no surprise), who will cover those costs? A Macedonian household on a low-average income? Macedonian hauliers? No, we are at the end of the chain. We pay last, and we pay more.

The ceasefire - if there was one - is now cracked. The question is not whether there will be a new war, but whether a small escalation can be contained before it grows into a big one.