One thousand six hundred names. That is how many individuals and legal entities linked to Russia's military-industrial complex could enter the European Union's new sanctions package. The figure was confirmed by Kaja Kallas, the EU's high representative for foreign policy, and foreign ministers have already discussed the package at a meeting in Ireland.

Except - the list was not written for the reason everybody thinks it was written.

The chronology that changes everything

Early August, Leipzig/Halle airport in Germany. A drone carrying explosives was found next to a Ukrainian cargo plane. On 1 September Berlin publicly accused Russia of the attempt, describing the incident as part of a broader campaign of Russian hybrid operations against European states. Kallas then said the case had "all the hallmarks of state-sponsored terrorism". Moscow rejects the accusations.

And here comes the detail worth attention: Kallas herself admits that preparation of the list of around 1,600 names was already under way before Germany publicly accused Russia. In other words, the package is not a response to Leipzig. Leipzig is an opportunity for the package to be presented as a response.

That does not mean the sanctions are unjustified. It means the story about them was built backwards - first you make the list, then you look for the event that will give it a headline. That is an old craft and not a European invention.

What else is on the table

Besides the names, also in play are stricter rules on issuing tourist visas to Russian citizens, stricter rules on the movement of Russian diplomats across EU territory, and new measures against the so-called "shadow fleet" - the network of ships carrying Russian oil despite sanctions.

That last item is the one with weight. Sanctions against individuals are symbolism if the oil keeps flowing. The shadow fleet is the infrastructure that makes previous sanctions packages partly decorative, and any new package that does not touch it is a press release, not a measure.

A decision? Not now.

No final decision was taken at the meeting in Ireland. Kallas announced that work continues and that the aim is for the measures to be adopted in the autumn. So: once again we have a package billed as the strongest yet, and once again there is no date for when it takes effect.

Will the number 1,600 survive until the vote, or will it melt away through negotiations with countries already saying loudly that they will not support all of it? That is the real question, and the answer will not come from Brussels press releases - it will come from whatever is left on the list when autumn arrives.