Until now Iran responded where it was closest to hand - American bases in Iraq, in Jordan, in the Gulf. Now, according to sources close to the authorities in Tehran, targets on European soil are entering the calculation too. Bulgaria and Cyprus are among those mentioned.

That is not distant news about somebody else. Bulgaria is our neighbour.

The reason is concrete and the date is known. Last month the parliament in Sofia approved the temporary deployment of American tanker aircraft at the Bezmer military base - up to eight KC-135s and a maximum of 250 American soldiers, from 24 July to 1 October. Tehran told Bulgaria back then that the use of its territory for American military operations could be interpreted as complicity in the attacks. Sofia replied that no offensive weaponry would be used from its territory and that the country was not becoming a participant in the war.

When one side's defence becomes another's risk

Sofia's logic is understandable - these are refuelling aircraft, not bombers. But in war the logics of two sides rarely coincide. For Tehran, the plane refuelling the bombers is part of the chain that carries the bombs. The formal difference between „offensive\" and „support\" is drawn by lawyers, not by the people picking targets.

One of the sources puts it without hedging: „If the US goes too far, Iran will defend itself at any cost, will go outside the region and will strike Europe too.\"

Cyprus is also mentioned among the possible targets, where Britain has the Akrotiri base. It was already hit at the beginning of March, when an Iranian-made drone struck the runway and caused minor damage. Cypriot authorities assessed at the time that it had most likely been launched from Lebanon, from an area under Hezbollah influence, and not directly from Iran.

How real is the threat

Here it pays to stay sober. Sidharth Kaushal, a researcher at London's Royal United Services Institute, assessed the Iranian threat to Europe as „real, but limited\". In his estimation, Iran could use medium-range ballistic missiles, including those from the Shahab family, but their ability to inflict serious damage at greater distances would be limited.

So - not a scenario out of a film. But not zero either. And when it comes to medium-range missiles flying towards south-eastern Europe, the difference between „limited capability\" and „no capability\" is the difference the whole region carries.

Who decides in Tehran

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed Mohsen Rezaee, a former commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Rezaee commanded the Guard from 1981 to 1997, including most of the Iran-Iraq war, and is regarded as a representative of the hardline wing.

That is a message, and it was sent deliberately. One source sums it up like this: „Iran is sending a clear message - if the US does not reach a deal with Ghalibaf, it will have to deal with Rezaee.\"

Negotiations on reopening the Strait of Hormuz have practically stalled. On Tuesday Trump cut off the speculation further with the message that with Iran there are „no talks or negotiations under way or scheduled\". He had previously threatened that the US would destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant every time Iran attacked a ship in the strait.

When both sides hang up the phone and start threatening each other's infrastructure, calm does not usually follow.

What this means for us

The Balkans know this scene by heart - somebody else's war, somebody else's decisions, and the map being drawn on is ours. Nobody in Tehran asked what Sofia thought while writing the list, and nobody in Washington asked what the region thought while sending the tankers.

For now these are assessments from sources, not a published plan - and that is worth repeating. But when a country 300 kilometres from us turns up on somebody's list, the question is not whether it will happen, but whether anybody is doing the maths on what it would mean.