Lithuania moves to lift its ban on nuclear weapons: threats of "Oreshnik" strikes came straight from Moscow

On 6 October, Lithuania's Seimas voted for something nobody in Vilnius would have said out loud just a few years ago. With 106 votes in favour, 18 against and six abstentions, MPs passed the first of two mandatory votes on a constitutional amendment that removes the ban on deploying weapons of mass destruction on Lithuanian soil - including nuclear weapons.

The ban is more than three decades old. Lithuania wrote it into its constitution after restoring independence from the Soviet Union. Today it is a member of both NATO and the European Union, sitting on one of the most sensitive points of the Alliance's eastern flank: to the west and south it borders Russia's Kaliningrad region, and to the east and south Belarus, a close ally of Moscow.

The bombs aren't arriving tomorrow, though. Lithuania hasn't yet decided to host nuclear weapons. A final change to the constitution requires one more vote, and both need the support of at least two-thirds of all MPs - 94 out of 141. At least three months must pass between the two votes. So for now, this is about an open door, not deployed missiles.

Moscow didn't wait three months. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reacted almost immediately: "If the military infrastructure of a country that is, practically, a leading NATO member is moving closer to our borders, that can of course only be perceived as a step towards escalating tensions." According to him, neither a possible American base nor nuclear weapons in Lithuania would bring stability to Europe, but rather "a new significant escalation". Peskov linked the Lithuanian move to Donald Trump's idea of a US military base in Lithuania.

Then the rhetoric went where Russian rhetoric usually goes. Peskov warned that a Lithuania with nuclear weapons could become a target for Russian nuclear weapons. Alexei Zhuravlyov, first deputy chairman of the State Duma's Defence Committee, called for strikes with "Oreshnik" missiles or long-range drones on sites in Lithuania if nuclear weapons were deployed there. Dmitry Medvedev went furthest: in the event of a military conflict, he said, Lithuania could "disappear from the map of the world".

Why does Lithuania in particular get under Moscow's skin so much? Look at the map. Kaliningrad has no land link to the rest of Russia and is wedged between two NATO members, Lithuania and Poland. Lithuanian territory also borders the Suwałki corridor - a narrow strip between Poland and Lithuania that connects the Baltic states with the rest of NATO and separates Kaliningrad from Belarus. The American presence isn't new: since 2019 a US armoured battalion of around 1,000 troops has been rotating through the country.

The change comes as European countries are rapidly increasing defence spending because of the war in Ukraine. The Balkans know the scene well: a small country standing between great powers while others draw the lines on the map. Vilnius has every right to fear its neighbour - history gives it more than enough reasons. But wasn't the nuclear ban from the 1990s better protection than a nuclear target in its own backyard? And who will answer for it if that answer turns out to be wrong?