US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that "a major deal with Iran will happen today." The Iranian version is that the deal has not yet been signed. Same day, two different stories. The classic US-Iran tango.

According to Washington, there are serious proposals on the table around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. The US and Iran reportedly have 60 days to finalize the nuclear terms. Iran would give up highly enriched uranium in exchange for sanctions relief, and Hormuz would be re-opened for commercial traffic.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Bakai, had a more measured version: "It's true that we have reached consensus on many issues through Pakistani mediation, but nobody can claim that a signing is inevitable."

Economic markets reacted immediately. Oil prices fell 5 percent on the new deal news. Brent crude dropped 1.5 percent to around $99 a barrel. When you reach a deal with Iran, markets cheer - it's a sign that Hormuz will be safe. When Iran denies it, markets jump back up.

A US official said: "If Iran doesn't meet its obligations, it gets nothing." The US is keeping the military blockade of Iranian ports in place until the deal is closed. This is the rhetoric of strength, but also the rhetoric of certain open clauses - "if." Which means the deal isn't finished, and Bakai is entitled to be cautious.

For the Balkans, any deal with Iran means stability in energy markets. When Hormuz is open and oil flows, our electricity prices come down. When it's closed - we suddenly become dependent on speculators. This isn't a distant news story - it's a line on our monthly bill.