When polls for the 2028 Republican nomination in August 2025 had JD Vance at 52% versus Marco Rubio at 9%, the gap looked unbridgeable. Nine months later, the same poll (Emerson College, May 2026) has Vance fallen to 35.5% and Rubio jumped to 34.6%. Between them - less than one percentage point, within a margin of error of 4.7%.

What changed it? Iran. International affairs. As Columbia professor Robert Shapiro noted, "Rubio is unequivocally overshadowing Vance on the Iranian conflict and international issues." Rubio picked up six percentage points more among Republicans over 50 compared to Vance - the demographic segment that decides primaries.

On the other side, the Democrats have a different kind of chaos: Pete Buttigieg 18%, Gavin Newsom 16%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 11%, Kamala Harris 10%. No lead figure, many candidates splitting the base. The Republicans have two faces, the Democrats have five - but neither camp knows exactly what 2028 brings.

For the Balkans, this is a signal about who's going to be the next "American tone" towards the region. Vance is an isolationist, Rubio is a traditional Republican hawk on international issues. If a real contest opens, everything shifts for countries looking for American support - including Ukraine, the Baltics, and very differently, the Balkans. It's not "who will be president in 2028" but "which voters now shape every White House move," and that fight has already begun.