Russia's military economy model has started to crack. After a year and a half of claims that the Russian economy could absorb Western sanctions and that military production was strengthening the nation - a new reality is breaking through. The numbers can no longer be hidden.

The initial wartime growth was the result of rapid militarization. Factories switched to military production, state defense spending pushed up GDP. On paper it looked like „the Russian economy is consolidating". In reality, it was a classic wartime economy - with short-term and long-term consequences. Short-term, the numbers are good. Long-term, the problems pile up.

Russia's central bank held interest rates at 21 percent for a long time to control inflationary pressure. That choked off credit and normal economic activity. In January and February this year, the economy unexpectedly contracted - a fall, not just a slowdown. That caused panic in the Kremlin, because official projections had been for growth of at least 2 percent.

At an economic meeting in April, Putin showed visible displeasure. „I hope to hear detailed reports on the current economic situation and on why macroeconomic indicators remain below expectations," he said. That's the closest Putin has come in a decade to a public criticism of his own authorities. Behind closed doors, Kremlin sources say the reaction was sharp.

The central bank cut rates to 14.5 percent at the end of April. Official statistics show 3.8 percent growth in March, but business confidence has fallen to a yearly low. The services sector is at its lowest level in 40 months. When the real businesspeople don't trust the statistics - that means something.

Beyond the budget problems, the prolonged war with a slow-moving front, the high losses and the intensified Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russian territory have made the war no longer feel „distant". Prices are rising. Consumer goods are short. The fear of mobilization is back at 2022 levels. State control over speech expands every month. For the Balkan reader - familiar symptoms. It's the sign of a country noticing that the regime no longer has answers, only stalling.