Ukraine is stepping up drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, forcing the biggest facilities to halt or scale back production. Roughly a quarter of Russia's refining capacity - more than 30 percent of petrol output and 25 percent of diesel - is now offline. Moscow imposed an export ban on petrol from April to July.

Key refineries in Kirishi, Moscow, Nizhny Novgorod, Ryazan and Yaroslavl are the targets. Kirishi, with a capacity of 20 million tons per year, was completely shut down on May 5. These strikes also strain Russia's federal budget - oil and gas taxes account for roughly a quarter of total revenue. The war is now eating the very veins that feed it.

In Perm, Russian Orthodox priests held prayers and processions for protection against drone strikes, following recent infrastructure damage. It's a scene that was previously considered impossible - modern war with candles and requiems in cities far behind the front. People who had never seen a window crack until recently are now asking for spiritual protection from the horizon.

For a Balkan audience, this is a reminder of how easily civilian infrastructure can become a target. We saw the same pattern in 1999 in Serbia, in 2022 in Ukraine, and now in the opposite direction. Nobody has learned from the question - if you strike my source of energy, I'll strike yours. The doctrine of calculation becomes the doctrine of retaliation.