A scientist from Washington State University is warning of a possible repeat of a natural catastrophe that 150 years ago killed tens of millions of people. Specifically: simultaneous mass droughts, an explosion of global hunger, and a dark climate cycle that opened between 1877 and 1878.

"Simultaneous multi-year droughts similar to those of the 1870s can repeat," says Prof. Deepti Singh. Precisely: a powerful El Niño cycle, surface ocean temperatures three degrees above average, which can smash all previous records. The same phenomenon that drove India, China and Brazil into collapse in the 19th century - now returning to a warmed world, with disturbed oceans and an atmosphere starving for energy.

150 years ago around 50 million people died - by conservative estimates that's nearly 3-4 percent of the world's population at the time. Mostly Indian peasants, Chinese farmers, Brazilian ranchers. All without water. All without food. And all long before the kind of global warming we have today.

What's changed now? "The atmosphere and oceans are significantly warmer," Singh adds. That means more energy in the system - and so the consequences can be "even sharper". Not one drought in one year, but linked extreme events that hit in sequence. The Balkans are already getting a taste of this structure: 2024 was a dry year in Macedonia and Greece, 2025 brought wildfires along the coasts of Croatia and Albania.

The question for us isn't "will it happen". The question is - will the Balkans be ready, or will we wait for the disaster to show us how. When the irrigation stations are 40 years old, when the old hydro system from Yugoslavia falls apart piece by piece, and when politicians argue about which party will take responsibility - we don't need El Niño. We have enough problems of our own.