The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) said it had foiled an attack with magnetic mines on the gas tanker „Archenius" at Ust-Luga port, in the Leningrad region. According to the Russians, divers and expert teams discovered several mines on the outer hull of the ship, in the area near the engine. The tanker arrived from Antwerp and was supposed to load cargo before continuing on to the Turkish port of Samsun.

Each mine contained roughly seven kilograms of explosive. The FSB claims the ship could not have been mined in Russian waters, and turns attention to the vessel's previous journey and its 24-hour holdup in Antwerp because of „suspended port operations". Translation: the Russians are saying - Belgium is to blame.

The incident is being investigated as an attempted terror attack. Ust-Luga is one of the most critical Russian ports for energy export on the Baltic - this point is in the same league of strategic importance as Hormuz or Gibraltar. Whoever strikes here strikes at Russian oil revenues.

Russian officials have not publicly identified who is responsible, but the context leaves no room for guessing: over the past three years, attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have been continuous. Nord Stream, Druzhba, refineries, depots - one after another. No major side admits them, but few of us are unsure where they come from.

For the Balkans, this is not a direct story - but it is part of a wider pattern. The war in Ukraine has long been spilling over into non-water domains: undersea cables, energy nodes, civilian tankers. That means uncertainty in prices, in deliveries, and in the risks insurance companies calculate. And that eventually arrives on our electricity bill.

An unanswered question: will the Russians respond, and where? Historically, they wait - and then strike at a place nobody expected. This is not a story for today. It is a story for a few months from now.