Iran has sent a proposal. There are two conditions: the US ends the blockade of Iranian ports and halts military operations. In exchange - the Strait of Hormuz reopens. The nuclear program would be discussed in later stages.

Trump received the proposal. He said it is "much better" than the previous one. But also that it isn't enough - his "red line" is clear: Iran cannot acquire nuclear weapons. The Iranian envoy answered him directly: "Who is Trump to decide about our nuclear capabilities?"

In the meantime, the strait is closed. Around a fifth of the world's oil and gas transit ran through it. Crude is above $108 a barrel, Goldman Sachs has revised forecasts upward, markets are jittery. Every day of diplomatic deadlock, the economic pressure grows - on Iran, on America, and on everyone who buys fuel.

Araghchi traveled to Moscow before the proposal was routed through Pakistan to Washington. Russia is Iran's key ally. The diplomatic path is long and winding - and Hormuz stays closed in the meantime.

Will Trump accept a phased approach or keep up the pressure - that's the question whose answer is moving global markets in real time.