Sanctions against Russia were meant to be the hardest instrument the European Union has. Three and a half years on, they are up for trade - and not because of Russia, but because of a few French citizens imprisoned in Azerbaijan.

France has asked Brussels to remove Alisher Usmanov, the Russian-Uzbek oligarch the Union lists as close to Vladimir Putin, from its sanctions register. The request caught diplomats off guard. One of them described it in a single word: astonishing. Paris had never previously pushed for easing sanctions on Russian oligarchs - on the contrary, it presented itself as one of the firmest wings in the Union.

Why France is suddenly advocating for a Russian oligarch

The answer has nothing to do with Russia or the war in Ukraine. According to the European financial press, Paris is trying to strike a deal with Azerbaijan over the release of several imprisoned French nationals, and striking Usmanov off the list is one of the cards on the table. A sanction imposed over aggression against one state is being offered as currency to settle an entirely different international dispute.

A French diplomat defends this with a formulation that says everything on its own: France has a specific national security interest and wants to accommodate international partners who approached it regarding Usmanov. That same source points out that France remains among the most determined in tightening pressure on the Russian war machine. Those two sentences sit together badly.

Croatia and Italy went over to the French side

This is the part that touches our region most. Croatia and Italy backed the French request - formally in order to reach a compromise and prevent sanctions against everyone else linked to Russia from collapsing. The majority of member states remain against. So a neighbouring EU country, which at every summit explains the importance of a united European stance towards Moscow, found itself on the side of relief when the moment came.

Whether that is pragmatism or capitulation depends on who is holding the microphone. But one senior European diplomat put the question directly: a move like this rewards not only Russia but the practice of jailing European citizens. Several countries fear a precedent is being set - a third state holds your people, you concede.

A mechanism anyone can take hostage

Renewing this sanctions regime requires unanimity from all 27 member states. Which means a single government can block the entire package. France and Slovakia did exactly that - demanding concessions over sanctioned Russian billionaires. Nearly 2,600 individuals and entities linked to Russian aggression found themselves facing automatic expiry of the measures. The rescue was a temporary extension of just seven days, enough to keep talking.

Slovakia opened the subject by seeking the removal of two names - Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman. Until now such requests came from governments openly closer to Moscow, above all Hungary and Slovakia. Now Paris has joined them. And Luxembourg immediately let it be known that if Usmanov goes, it will ask for Fridman too. That is what it looks like when one concession opens the counter.

Kyiv is watching and remembering

Volodymyr Zelensky called on European partners not to give way, with an argument that is hard to dispute: the oligarchs are the load-bearing structure of Putin's system and must feel consequences. For as long as the war lasts, he said, they must find peace nowhere in the world.

The question that remains is not about Usmanov. The question is whether sanctions imposed over one thing can be traded away for something entirely different - and what that means for every future Union decision requiring unanimity. The Balkans know this mechanism by heart: when one hand can stop the whole package, every problem becomes a matter for bargaining. Except this time the word is not held by Skopje or Sofia, but by Paris.