Vladimir Putin has reportedly agreed to consider a Defense Ministry proposal to introduce martial law in Russia. The emphasis is on "reportedly": that's the claim of certain media outlets and Telegram channels, and Moscow has not officially confirmed that any such proposal has even reached the president's desk. Does the silence mean "no" - or just "not yet"?

If it happens, it would be one of the biggest changes to Russia's internal regime since the start of what Moscow still calls the "special military operation." Under Russian law, martial law is imposed by the president by decree in the event of aggression against Russia or an immediate threat of aggression. The decree must state the reason, the start date and the territory, and then goes urgently to the Federation Council, which has 48 hours to consider it. How many times has the upper house ever said "no" to Putin?

The substance is in what follows the decree. The authorities get much broader powers: restricting movement and the work of certain organizations, tighter control of transport and communications, special protection of key facilities and additional obligations for citizens and companies related to the defense of the state. The law also allows general or partial mobilization, if it hasn't already been declared. In short - the state gets a key to almost every door in the country.

Four regions already live under that regime. Putin introduced martial law in the DPR, LPR, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions back on October 19, 2022, after Russia declared them its own territory. In the rest of the country, especially in regions bordering Ukraine, various levels of readiness were introduced. What would be new is extending the regime to all of Russia or to a much larger part of its territory.

For years the Kremlin rejected such speculation. In 2022 and 2023 Putin said he saw no need for such a decision, and spokesman Dmitry Peskov insisted the issue wasn't on the agenda. Since then, though, a lot has changed: drone and missile strikes have reached deep into Russian territory, and the border regions have gone through ground incursions and intense attacks.

The rumors aren't new. Back in the summer, Russian and Western sources wrote that part of the security apparatus was considering much tougher measures after the September State Duma elections. Scenarios in circulation included a new expansion of mobilization, restrictions on movement, tighter border controls and shifting parts of the economy onto a war footing. Russian officials at the time confirmed neither a new mass mobilization nor martial law. The elections are now over. Were the measures just waiting for the voting to end?