While Europe has spent months feeding on forecasts of war with Russia, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander for Europe, American general Alexus Grynkewich, says something that runs against that atmosphere: Russia is not seeking conflict with the Alliance. "I have studied the intelligence data very carefully. Russia is not seeking conflict," he said at an air show in Berlin, asked about a possible Russian strike on the Baltic states.

According to Grynkewich, Moscow well understands NATO's defensive nature and the Alliance's military advantage - hence the conclusion that open conflict is not in its interest. A sentence that right now sounds almost rebellious, since it cuts against the dominant tone demanding constant readiness for the worst.

But that same air show brought an opposite voice too. German general Christian Freuding claimed that within NATO there is a consensus that a conflict with Russia could happen even before 2030. Two senior military figures, the same hall, opposite assessments - and both claim to be reading the data.

And here is the question rarely asked out loud: if the highest military minds can't agree on whether war is coming or not, what exactly are budgets, fears and headlines built on? For a region that knows all too well what it means when politics feeds on the threat of war, this kind of disagreement isn't an academic detail. The threat sells - weapons, budgets and fear alike. The only question is who stands to gain from keeping it alive.