Croatian military analyst Marinko Ogorec said what many European leaders think privately but dare not say publicly: NATO is in existential crisis. The future of the alliance is threatened because America no longer needs it - and NATO cannot function without the US.

Washington's geopolitical focus has shifted. The Pacific, the Arctic, Hormuz - those are the priorities of American strategy today. Europe is historically important, but no longer central. And European NATO members depend on American space systems, logistics and intelligence that cannot be replaced in the short term.

Ogorec also criticises the American strategy in Iran. He says Trump entered something he had not planned to develop - under Netanyahu's influence. The US has no exit strategy, Israel has not achieved its objectives. Negotiations have publicly failed, and secret diplomacy - if it exists - has produced no results.

For the Balkans, this is a concrete question, not abstract geopolitics. Macedonia, Slovenia, Croatia, Albania, Montenegro - all NATO members whose security depends on an alliance whose main pillar is beginning to look elsewhere. Can a European defence pillar replace American capabilities? Ogorec answers with we do not know - and that is a worrying enough answer.