Donald Trump has a new target in NATO - and this time it isn't Germany. "Italy wasn't any help to us, and Spain was awful, absolutely awful", Trump told reporters. Asked whether he would pull American troops from these countries, he replied: "Probably. Why not?"

The numbers are these: there are 12,662 American troops in Italy. In Spain - 3,814. In Germany, for comparison, 36,436. Which means Italy alone carries almost a third more than Spain and Germany combined if you count only those two. Italy is strategically vital for the Mediterranean, especially for operations toward North Africa and the Middle East.

Why is Trump angry at Italy? Because Giorgia Meloni, his erstwhile political ally, didn't give the green light for the Iranian operation. Trump first publicly criticised her in Corriere della Sera, saying she lacked "courage" on Iran policy. That was three weeks ago. Now - a hit at the front.

Spain is a different case. The US last week discussed a possible suspension of Spain from NATO over its refusal to support military operations against Iran. Madrid refused. Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez isn't budging on higher defence spending. Trump wants 5% of GDP for defence. Spain pays around 2.5%.

The question NATO is avoiding is simple: what if Trump really does send these troops home? Every base in Italy and Spain represents strategic points that can't be replaced in a few months. And every threat from the American side gets read in Moscow as an opening on the Balkans.

The Balkan countries need to follow this with particular attention. Macedonia and Albania both have significant military-thinking structures tied to bases in Italy. When Trump talks in words, in Skopje it reads as "a check on the tactical scenarios" - and that is wisdom we have had for a very long time.