We've seen this scenario more than once in recent decades - but usually on a smaller scale. Donald Trump is negotiating with Iran without Benjamin Netanyahu at the main table. Israel, the century-old ally whose strategic interests sat at the center of US Middle East policy for a hundred years, is now treated as a military ally, not as a diplomatically equal partner.

The result? Israeli officials are cut out of direct communication on the US-Iran talks. According to sources, they are "forced to learn what they can about the agreement between Washington and Tehran through contacts with regional leaders and diplomats, as well as through their own intelligence inside the Iranian regime." In other words - they find out about their own neighbor the way foreign journalists find out about a closed press conference.

Trump's goal? A comprehensive deal that ends the wider confrontation and reopens the Strait of Hormuz. Netanyahu's goal? Iran not retaining nuclear and missile capabilities. The difference in goals is fundamental, and Trump has obviously chosen to bypass Israel's position rather than fold it into the talks. Strength or weakness? Depends on the perspective.

For Netanyahu, this is the biggest political defeat of his career, analysts say. Not because he lost - but because he was placed outside the game at the moment the game is being played. One thing is to be militarily dependent on the US - everyone knows that. Another thing is to be politically ignored while your interests are on the negotiating table. For the first time in decades, the Israeli prime minister risks ending his term without a significant diplomatic trophy.

For a Balkan perspective - this is a lesson that repeats through the history of small states. All alliances have limits. Partners don't stay partners forever. When your ally decides to negotiate without you, you can either keep quiet, or make a scene that weakens you even more. Netanyahu is trying the second approach - he behaves as if nothing is happening, while simultaneously lobbying media for greater inclusion. Will it help? Probably not. But the "keep quiet and bear it" option in Tel Aviv has never been politically sustainable.