The most powerful military in the world has stopped. Not because of a diplomatic breakthrough, not because of a peace plan, but because of something far more awkward for a superpower: it is starting to run out of ammunition.

American air strikes on Iran have been paused, a source at the US Department of Defense confirmed. The decision followed a Friday meeting at the White House at which Vice President JD Vance and General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned Donald Trump about the risks of continuing the campaign.

Caine was blunt: US ammunition stockpiles are seriously depleted. If the strikes continue, they will fall further. That sentence is worth more than every spokesperson's statement this week. This is not a moral change of heart, and it is not a new strategy. It is inventory.

One message for the public, another behind closed doors

Publicly, White House communications chief Steven Cheung insists the president "consistently prioritises diplomatic solutions" and that all options remain on the table should Iran continue activities in the Strait of Hormuz or against allies. Trump, for his part, said American representatives are negotiating with Iran and that the military could resume or intensify the strikes. According to sources, he privately told the negotiators to keep talking.

So which is it? Did diplomacy win, or is the warehouse empty? It also remains unclear how long the pause will last and whether the ammunition warnings were the main reason. What is not unclear is that commanders at the Pentagon are openly sceptical that limited military options will produce the desired result at all.

The Balkans know this scene by heart. When one side suddenly starts talking about negotiations after weeks of hard rhetoric, it is worth checking what it has run out of rather than what it has realised. Here that is usually called a "constructive approach" and announced at a press conference. The mechanics are the same whatever the continent.

And here is what anyone who follows campaigns like this knows: a pause is not an ending. It is the period in which both sides count what they have left. If Tehran is reading the same signal the analysts are reading, the negotiating table looks rather different this week than it did last.